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Trading the Randomness
My son started trading these last few weeks and has had some very surprising results. He determined that if he did 10,000 trades on a single currency pair that he would have a sort of mental understanding of the pair. So he loaded the 1 minute data started back testing his method. **Now when I say method, I mean that in the loosest of terms. He only trades bars between the hours of * PM and 10 PM, he then starts selecting buy and sell positions, taking profit at 2-10 pips. I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me but I’ll start posting them so you guys can follow him, but every night, after trading several of these time periods in a back environment he inevitably ends with a couple of hundred points.**As time goes by I analyze how he is doing and share the results with you. 10000 trades is lot but, at this point I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt
Exploring a simple scriptI decided that I want to talk about something that I have been working on for the last year, and after attending a seminar over the weekend, I decided to just do it. Someone said something to me that really stuck. I am going to paraphrase it, but here it is. You can give people whatever they want and very few of them are going to use it or be satisfied with it.
So in that spirit, I am going to share a script that I worked on for better part of a year. It isn’t a wildly profitable script but it has a lot of elements in it that can be applied to many other scripts and will teach you a lot about scripting.I’ll post it here in its entirety, and then over the next few days I’ll break down each part so you can see what I did. I had some help with the script, and thank those that helped.The first thing I’ll talk about is the code in Red. I created this so that the variables in the list could be switched out and tested. In this script I tested a cross of two EMA’s for an open and a close condition. However if I wanted to test how a different MA cross would work I could simply switch out the EMA’s and WMA’s for a different MAThis allows me to make a lot of changes on the fly without screwing with the heart of the script. Here is the script with original EMA’s and WMA’s**


Here is a chart with a HMA substituted for the WMA’s.

//Adjust these Variables as neededBuyTakeProfit Point(100)SellTakeProfit Point(100)BuyStopLoss Point(100)SellStopLoss Point(100)Local ECA = EMA[0](Close, 1)Local ECB = WMA[0](Close, 3)Local XCA = EMA[0](Close, 10)Local XCB = WMA[0](Close, 34)
Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE
global int ii
global int hh
global lastBreakPrice
global lastBreakPriceBS //the lastBreakPrice with buy/sell action
global int buysellzone //-1 sell zone; 1 buy zone; replace getValue("4 hr. 40 day", issellposition)
//approximate 4 hour BB breakout
if (High[0]>= BLG_U[0](Close, 80, 2)) then
buysellzone=-1
lastBreakPrice=high[1]
endif
if (Low[0]<= BLG_L[0](Close, 80, 2)) then buysellzone=1 lastBreakPrice=low[1] endif //crossover if buysellzone=-1 and lastBreakPricelastBreakPriceBS and CrossDown(ECA , ECB) and ECA < lastbreakpricebs="lastBreakPrice" ii="ii+1" buysellzone="1"> BLG_L[0](Close, 80, 2)) then
AddBuyEntry
lastBreakPriceBS=lastBreakPrice
hh=hh+1
ENDIF
if isbuyposition then
addbuyexit BElOW = lastBreakPriceBS - Point(0))
endif
if issellposition then
addsellexit OVER = lastBreakPriceBS+ Point(0))
endif
if isbuyposition and
CrossDown( XCA, XCB) then
addbuyexit
endif
if issellposition and
CrossUp( XCA, XCB) then
addsellexit
endif
OK a few apologies are in order. When the script was posted yesterday, there were a few errors that found their way into the post. So today at the end of this post you will find a link to down load the file. It will be unlocked and fully accessible for changes.

Today I want to talk about the use of Global variables versus Local variables. This script uses 5 global variable to pass along information. The difference in the two variables is how long the information is held by the variable anf what has access to that information.

Local: Declares a local variable in the chart. These variables remain accessible only within the particular script. These variables can be assigned an initial value. This value is held only as long as the specified condition is true.

Global: Declares a global variable in the chart. These variables remain accessible from every IntelliScript that are attached to the same Data Series. These variables can be assigned an initial value. The value can be held as long as you wish.

For today’s discussion, I am going to explain the first two global variables, because the concept behind them is detailed enough to fill this post.

global int ii
global int hh

When we initially wanted to set up the script we needed a way to count the process that we were going through. This counting needed to be done for several reasons, none of which are used in the final iteration of the script but we left in so we could test other changes as well.
The original reason was to add contract names. Remember that you cannot have more than 1 trade open in one direction at a time. That is unless they have different names. Counting was a way to add a different name. After each addbuyentry/addsellentry you will see the following lines of code

hh=hh+1
ii=ii+1

This steps the value up 1 for every time the group is “true” and a new signal is created. We could then add:

Contract = “+ii+” or Contract = “+hh+” behind the addbuyentry or addsellentry and new positions in the same direction would be created with a contract name of a number. Now lest you think it’s all that easy, remember you would also have to exit each of those contracts too. For this reason we abandoned this strategy in favor of another but left it there in case we wanted it in the future.


In today’s blog I want to introduce one of the most important concepts in the script. The code goes like this.**//approximate 4 hour BB breakoutif (High[0]>= BLG_U[0](Close, 80, 2)) thenbuysellzone=-1lastBreakPrice=high[1]endifif (Low[0]<= BLG_L[0](Close, 80, 2)) thenbuysellzone=1lastBreakPrice=low[1]endifI feel it’s one of the most significant parts because it calls on those global variables we assigned earlier and allows you to hold a specific condition until another definable condition is meat regardless of what happed between. With most scripts, the whole statement is either true or false, but with these the condition can be false but as long as the second condition isn’t meet then you can keep a value assigned to the global variable. Here’s an example of what I am talking about. **Let’s say you wanted to buy if RSI, Slow K became oversold in the last 24 hours and the PSAR supports a long. In regular statements unless all three conditions were meet at exactly the same time the statement not evaluate as true. But using these tyope of stamen the value can be held true even if the three conditions happened independently of eachother , but were true sometime in the last 24 hours.Using this example, the following script produced absolutely no trades.**if RSI[0](Close, 14) <>

However, by creating a buy/sell zones you can handle this instance and find trades based on the criteria involved. **global rsif LLV(RSI[0](Close, 14), 24) < thenrs =" 1elsers" rs =" 1" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5364781958690959346" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 266px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOeAC8aYaL1ceF53LbgcusftuNoOGw6jpHFGjzi2ATmX8h6tSU59MFoqo0yoMnQpZ-bQbOFSOETH8bZY4ErZ1DQNrFCE6Wf2U2QUfoRsYPKTfQai7yKtrJQn8pYNeoJu3gbXRTMGSrPqk/s400/c2222.jpg" border="0">

In the Larger script, we wanted a buy/ sell zones if the 80 Bollinger Band was broken, meaning we were in overbought or oversold conditions, and then we wanted to move on to further considerations. Let’s see who can send me the sell side of this script first. If you are the first one and it executes in the reverse of the buy, then I ‘ll send you a set of scripts that use in my trading
Ok here is the script as we ended it. The settings are still solid though we removed some of the fluff once we decided on the settings and the script was finalized.**
global int iiglobal int hhglobal lastBreakPriceglobal lastBreakPriceBS //the lastBreakPrice with buy/sell action global int buysellzone //-1 sell zone; 1 buy zone; replace getValue("4 hr. 40 day", issellposition)BuyTakeProfit Point(50)SellTakeProfit Point(50)//approximate 4 hour BB breakoutif (High[0]>= BLG_U[0](Close, 120, 3)) thenbuysellzone=-1lastBreakPrice=closeendifif (Low[0]<= BLG_L[0](Close, 120, 3)) thenbuysellzone=1lastBreakPrice=closeendif//crossoverif buysellzone=-1 and lastBreakPricelastBreakPriceBSand CrossDown( EMA[0](Close, 10) , WMA[0](Close, 34) ) thenAddSellEntry Contract = "Sell["+ii+"]"lastBreakPriceBS=lastBreakPriceii=ii+1ENDIF if buysellzone=1 and lastBreakPricelastBreakPriceBSand CrossUp( EMA[0](Close, 10) , WMA[0](Close, 34) ) thenAddBuyEntry Contract = "Buy["+hh+"]"lastBreakPriceBS=lastBreakPricehh=hh+1ENDIF if isbuyposition thenaddbuyexit BElOW = lastBreakPriceBS - Point(20))endifif issellposition thenaddsellexit OVER = lastBreakPriceBS+ Point(20))endifFor the GBPJP which it is optimized for here are the back tested results:** Here’s a shot of its equity line for the year starting with a zero balance.
I mentioned the other day that my son was trading an account without any indicators or anything else of education involved in his decision making. His goal is to make 10,000 trades on his way to learn how to trade. I also mentioned that he was trading a demo account. **Well that has changed. He is trading a live micro account now and has for the last four days. His results are surprising to say the least. I know when I first started I was on the fast track to blowing up my account. I know that he barely has 20 live trades under his belt, but he is already 66% accurate and is just at break even It will take many more trades to identify any problems and when he could statistically improve, but I can’t say that after my first 20 trades that I had those kinds of numbers. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.**So what I learned from this was that I should strip down my charts and really look at the the one indicator that is king, Price. And it was amazing how I started to see things. If I just traded when I fel like it I could in a testing environment duplicate his results, so I said to myself, what If I took that and added one and only indicator what could I do?Bam, right away I found an actionable system that I could trade. I qualified what I had been seeing when I was just looking at the charts. Though I was able to duplicate my son’s results without a single indicator, with one qualifying indicator I was able to go profitable and raise my winning percentage to over 70%. **If you want to get involved with testing like this you need to join the 10KT group starting on the 2nd of April. We will be doing it as a group and sharing our results. Attacking the market as a group!**
Spring was here for a day
Saturday was such a nice day. We almost reached 70 degrees and the sun was out. I woke up this morning and there was snow on the ground. I know it’s just another early spring in Utah but the blow is hard to deal with sometimes.
I start to get excited about the spring and summer and then I have to wait and wait for it to come. What does this have to do with the currency market? Well I was talking with my son last night about a new strategy that we want to implement and he was talking about how many trades and what the projected P/L would be and I could tell he was getting frustrated. Finally I asked him what the problem was. He told he needed a new bass amp and wanted to get a banjo. And the money just wasn’t coming fast enough. I had to laugh. He finally realized after running more numbers that he wasn’t going to get this anywhere else so he relaxed and settled in for the ride. Whether it’s spring or the next pay day iarn FX mket, relax and let the system work .
Getting My Kicks in the FX Market
Today the 10KT trading system went live and I am excited about it. The disappointing thing about it is that nearly half those that read the email blog have so far decided not to participate. Listen, there isn’t much reason to come to the blog everyday if you aren’t always trying to improve your trading. Even those that are already trading live, you could also learn by participating. So I encourage you to join in..**
“I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but the man who has practiced 1 kick 10,000 times” Bruce Lee
There is no shortcut to success. I won’t say it all again, but if there was, what would everybody be doing. Get out of the secret sauce mentality, there is no one golden method, there is only you and the market, and the market is treating you like a “nobody”. When are you going to get to know the market better than it knows you?**
Thursday webinars
If any of you are not attending the webinars that we have on Thursday’s you are missing out on a huge amount of information. I only know of a few places where all this information is available and we definitely have more of it than anyone else, and it’s all for free. Last night we have several questions for someone new to forex trading and we also had scripting questions. We talked about Inter market analysis, inter pair relationships and 10KT. I challenged everyone to take 200 practice trades without using an indicator. I started it last night and posted my results in the 10KT section. It was a great webinar that had a ton of really good information in it. I would encourage all of you to attend whenever possible. I really can’t wait to see everyone’s results form the challenge. It should be very interesting.
I was watching a show over the weekend about muscle women, and the follow up show about people who tattoo, pierce and modify their bodies to the extreme. I realized that we as Forex traders could easily be wrapped up in the same psychological blanket as these folks are.I’ll admit I have a tattoo, but I am far from muscle bound. I enjoy the occasional workout here and there but nothing formal or too rigorous. The real point that was made in the show was how these people had done these things to compensate for something else.
One lady had anorexia when she was younger, and initially got into the gym to burn more calories, liked how she felt after a workout and took it to the other extreme. The deeper issue wasn’t explored much you could argue that she is covering one obsession with another. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Traders build their expectations of success and very few of them succeed. The obsession with charts and indicators and systems can lead to dysfunctional trading that must be cured before one can really develop as a trader.
Participation
I just talked to someone that was doing the challenge and, no surprise there, they are seeing a little bit of success too**. He’s trading alive account, which I definitely don’t recommend, but when you come to the webinar on Thursday I’ll make sure you guys get to talk to him about how is doing and what he is doing. I can’t stress enough how much of a difference this is making to those that are following it already. I am hearing some really good things. This whole experiment made me think of the little chicken story that I shared last week. We can only help you so much, sooner or later you are going to have to sit down and do the work to get good. You are the only one that can affect the outcome of your trading, and I bet most of us spend more time trying to improve everything but ourselves. The 10KT exercises are designed to do just that. Improve what is in you. Not some system that somebody else gave you or someone else has shared with you. Get on the bus, and lets all make it work together. Otherwise I’ll be the only one that benefits from this whole thing.
Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results
No one wants it when responsibility is required.
I am of the firm belief that the American consumer is as much at fault as the big multinational banks and corporations for the current state of the economy. Here is where I see the difference in reaction to the problem though.
By default the consumer has had to tighten the purse strings. Some are losing their homes, others are losing their jobs, and some are just tightening up after several years of open wallet spending. He money available to help the consumer is a drop in the bucket compared to what has already been spent on banks, investment companies and AIG
. When the homeowner gets a hamper mortgage refinanced under the new Fed programs they are expected to continue making the payments and being responsible for their expenses. The big boys don’t want to be held to that same standard. The latest traap requests dropped to 1.7 billion, down from over 4 billion, largely due to the strings attached to the money.
Going back to the days of double digit growth isn’t likely to happen any time soon, and what it feels like, is that now the party is over, the banks don’t want to stop partying. They don’t want to tighten up except their lending standards. Everyone, corporations and individuals need to take responsibility and tighten up everywhere. Even though I think in US we have seen the bottom, spending is still not the way out of this mess.
The Dust Bowl and GAAP
I would like to take the opportunity to challenge the generally accepted principles that most people use to govern their lives in respect to the world they live in and those that we have for years put our trust in. My wife is in her second to last semester in her Master of Accounting program and is in the process of completing a paper for her Government Accounting class.
There are three very interesting things that I have learned from her about the way our various governments keep their records.
1. The Federal Government doesn’t hold itself to the same accounting standards that it holds state and local governments and businesses too. 2. The Budget that is made so public is cash based budget that does not include debts owed in the future as any other entity would be required to keep.3. The treasury department publishes a GAAP financial statement each year that would make anybody with a pulse sick to their stomach.
These three items alone are tough but here are a few numbers to chew on.
1. The Federal Deficit of 2008 using GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), without Social Security or Medicare, is actually $1.009 Trillion, not the $454.8 billion you hear in the news today.2. If add in Social Security and Medicare the deficit of 2008 was actually $5.1 Trillion.
But wait that’s not all!
3. Using GAAP the Federal Governments Net Worth is -$59.3 Trillion. 4. If you take into account all of the obligations we owe, that’s like taking all your car debt and house debt and credit card debt and totaling it, the good old US of A owes a staggering $65.5 Trillion. This includes things like interest, promised Social Security and Medicare payments.
Sixty Five and half Trillion dollars! Say that really fast five times. It’s amazing. This all came up after watching a show on the great dust bowl. It seemed all too familiar.
The government wanted the US to become the breadbasket to the world so they started giving land away as long as it was plowed and planted. A great race for the mid west was started. When they wanted more people to move to the mid west they doubled the amount of land they were giving away. As the world’s population grew so did the price of wheat. The US passed Russia for the first time in the production of what just before the depression. Farmers were receiving record high prices for their wheat. Then it all came crashing down. Wheat fell from close to $.70 a bushel to less than $.20. This broke most farmers and as the rain ceased, the dust bowl ensued. It all sounds to familiar.
Looking at the Correlation between the DJIA and the USDJPY


have had a few questions about using the DJIA as a gauge to trade in the forex market. So the first thing we need to do is take a look at the directional correlation between the two. Now the following chart is not reflective of percent gain or loss. I just copied one and pasted it over the other, so you could see the similarities in movement over the trading day.
Other than the horrible spelling, I was pretty right. But how did I arrive at this conclusion?In the above chart the first thing I noticed was that there was a longer term line that had been hit by the USDJPY on the move higher and price had subsequently fallen, breaking a longer term support line. I figured then that the daily tone would be a close toward the bottom side of the daily . Now all of you that follow my emails also know that I am short this pair right now, so I have a reason for thinking that the USDJPY will eventually hit 97.20. I factored that into my reasoning and viola, after testing the top side one last time in late afternoon trade the DJIA lost over 156 points in the last hour to close below the daily open.Now let’s make one more educated guess about a price that should print tomorrow. I think that 7932 should print sometime tomorrow. That means the USDJPY could follow the DJIA higher but could start from a much lower place if Asian traders look at the late US loss and send futures and the USDJPY lower overnight .But I didn’t need to look at the correlation between the DJIA and the USDJPY to guess that the USDJPY would have at best an even day. All I needed to do was look at the USDJPY’s support and risistanse to determine where I wanted to be with the pair.
Stunning Disregard
If you want proof that there was disregard for individuals and investors on the part of large banks and corporations before the fall of the market last year, just listen to the news coming out of Hong Kong. Of course this is conveniently buried now that the Swine Flu is the main headline.
Banks and Investment firms were selling notes linked to Lehman Brothers before they failed, to old people, less sophisticated investors and even the mentally ill. There is even evidence that they were being sold as low risk investments.
To rub salt in the wounds of the investors that bought the notes, the regulatory body that found out about the practices, stated in a report that to disclose the information would be against public interest. I wonder how much that guy was collecting under the table. The findings were originally blacked out of the report, and not revealed.
Now for all those here in the US, if you think this isn’t reflective of the practices here in the US, forget about it. I agree with one statement from the article, “If more restrictions are placed on the sale of investment products it could add a lot onto banks’ operating costs,” What are you supposed to do though; it’s apparent that the industry cannot or will not regulate itself. BoA is in the headlines needing another 60 to 70 billion. I wonder where they are spending all that cash.
Automate your Forex Trading
A lot has been made lately of auto trading your forex account. From fully automated trading robots to signals, auto trading can offer you some huge benefits. There are times that you just can’t or don’t want to, be in front of the computer. This doesn’t mean that you have to miss out on your trades. With the forex cutor there are several ways you can trade Forex with automated signals. From simple price alerts to full automated trade execution, the ForeXecutor can handle it all. This article will discuss briefly the types of trading and alerts that you can use to help automate your trading.
Using simple price alerts you can be notified when a price has been touched. These can be prices above or below current price action. Once the price is hit, you can be notified via text, email as well as the charting platform.
Buy/Sell signals can also be generated, but not actually executed to your live account, allowing you a little more control over the actual execution of the trade. This is a popular option during news events and periods of time when the market is expected to move extremely rapidly, but pull backs are also expected.
Full Auto execution can be achieved with the ForeXecutor. Once a Buy/Sell signal is generated on the charting platform the signal is sent to your broker from your trading platform, allowing the trade to be automatically executed.
In addition to the above clear cut trading examples, you can vary the type of auto execution you want at any given time. Full control of execution is given to the user at all times. Whether you want your trades to be automatically executed or you simply want to be alerted to a specific trade set up ForeXecutor has you covered.
It’s very interesting to get into the whole trading thing deeper than you had been before. If you have never heard the term, Contango before, were both in the same boat. Just because the currency market in the US is lumped in with commodity trading, doesn’t mean I have heard it all.
Contango is “a condition in which distant delivery prices for futures exceed spot prices” in this case oil that is being held in takers off the coasts so that real commodity traders, Oil companies, refiners etc, can benefit from the difference in near and future commodity contracts.
Why would they do this, what forces are at work here? On land the oil refineries are full as demand for oil and oil products has dropped, so storing the oil on land is expensive because there is a shortage of space to store oil. To solve this problem, suppliers store the oil on tankers, out of the market, and off the balance sheets, effectively hidden, and then deliver when the price difference or cantango resolves itself.
The problem is that well over 100 million barrels are stored at sea right now and will need to be delivered because it can only be stored for so long. In a well written article that explains this very well I pulled the following quote.
“Historically, the general rule has been that 50 days of forward cover is mega bullish for oil prices, 53 days is bullish, 57 days bearish and 60 days mega bearish,” said David Hufton, managing director of brokers PVM Oil Associates.
So how many days of forward cover do we have right now including the off shore oil? 64.45, the most since the end of the first gulf war, it seems that lower gas prices may be coming.
Another Change to Forex Trading Charts

Tuesday, 02 June 2009 22:51
Here's another killer change to the Forex Charts. You can now measure a trends distance in Pips. Simply draw your line, right click on the line and select "Pip Measurement". I know alot of you have been asking for that one. So knock yourself out.
As mentioned in the other blog posted today, high oil prices drive the demand for, and create new, alternatives to oil. Imagine if you will, a 4x4, all wheel drive vehicle that gets 100 mpg. That is the nightmare that keeps OPEC nation leaders awake at night.
I've got news for them, Freddy just got out of the furnace and is on his way over. A company from my home state has released details on just such a vehicle. Here is an m msn article about it. It's so cool and they want it showrooms by 2011. I am gonna save up my pennies for one.
Even if there is a valid argument for discounting the mpg of the vehicle to incorporate the usage of resources to produce the electricyt, 33 mpg would double the current mpg and cut inhalf the amount of oil we need to buy overseas. Just imagine if you had made trillions of dollars by producing 1 product and in a few years that gets cut in half. I know that is over simplified, but trust me, they are taking notice.
was out to dinner with my family last night, and in-between sips of coke and bites of Pier 49 Pizza, it occurred to me, we are about to enter a very interesting time in the world. Forget last year’s crash, forget the "recovery" we are going through right now. enquities are at a make or break point, the USD is teetering on the edge of full out slaughter, the fomc and many world organizations are calling for a recovery in the latter half of the year, record unemployment is still growing and people have finally capitulated on using the term "green shoots".
My point is this, from here we have two very different roads the economy can take. The slightest quake and the recovery tips off and we spend the next ten years digging out. The other is a continued recovery that takes place slowly but surely. I explained this to my kids, who are 18 and 16, and there unenthusiastic response was matched by my exuberance for the topic. I just returned to my coke and pizza and made a note to redouble my efforts as a trader.
Just following up on the post I made the other day about this being an interesting time in the economic landscape. Did today just prove my point or what? The DJIA breaks and then closes over 9000. There are so many diverging views being seen by Wall Street and Main Street. Microsoft earnings down 29%, Amazon misses estimates and AmEx doesn't make a BUCK either. Then home prices, home sales, and home inventory’s all make progress.So I guess homes are being bought, but nothing is going in them? Or, hear me out on this one...speculators are buying on long bets in the recovery.
Any way the final shape of the recovery comes out, I am starting to get the impression it isn't going to look like anyone’s model. In the last thirty days I have read articles quoting very notable sources calling for oil at $25 and another at $100+. This is the whole reason I keep my trade’s short term and am not playing either side of the recovery/failure coin.

FTSE Falls after US GDP
US stocks remain anemic Thanks to Yahoo Finance for these charts. It has been very interesting watching the reaction of the US stock market to this morning’s GDP release. So far they have not participated in the USD rout. Oil is back above 68, which I don't understand, considering that consumer spending was down more than double what was expected. The Pound has slapped the USD, taking to pair toa high 1.6732 so far. The high from June 29th is 1.6744 and will need to be bested for the rally to continue.
SNB may have little control nowAll the talk in the world may not stop the CHF from taking flight today and beyond. They have done a great job of keeping the currency from getting out of control up to this point, with verbal intervention, and their entire goal may have been just what they did, hold off the currency’s strength for a later date, so that it just wasn't out of control now. With a close below the top support line the bottom line may come into focus. Trade idea short here, stop above 1.5252, targeting 1.5180.
GBPUSD Highly important EURFPY 185.4 Points Profit booked on VolatilityAlthough it was just my profit target,(past results are not indicative of future results) and is most likely going to get hit again, 135.16 was hit on volatility after the GDP release. Initially the USD caught a bid, but is now falling against the four majors and the USDCAD. It remains to be seen if this is knee jerk on the US opening, or if it holds up. The DJIA has opened higher today, but only slightly. Regardless of what you think, when you dig into the numbers, the GDP release was not good. Yes it was better than expected, but consumer spending shank more than double what it was expected too. We'll have to see if the equity bulls can pull off a gain based on this GDP release.
If the FTSE is giving any indication that the recent rally was overdone, the us markets should open lower. I'll hit more details on the release later.
GBPJPY Closes with profit
Written by Administrator
Thursday, 30 July 2009 08:19
USDINX Fails to reach resistance line shown below. Don't expect price to go anywhere for the time being. The difference between the resistance line and the price this mornign didn't make any sense for a trade. The move closed the fill on a 6 hr black candle, leaving no other targets in play.
USDCAD is in trouble and last Monday's comment
I made two comments about the USDCAD on Monday, one proved to be true and we need to wait until tomorrow to see if the other proves true. I mentioned that the pair would head back up to 1.0935/50 area andit did, then later in the day I said that I just dont see the USDCAD holding at these levels, meaning I expect the pair to fall. Right now price is again testing the waters at 1.0800 and I get that feeling again that it just stop here.
USDJPY 22 points form target, gunning for 95.07
I detailed a trade earlier in the day and now price is only 22 points away form the target. WIth continued strength tongiht in the Asian market the trade may close. A little volitility may just pop the target even if the target isn't closed through.
The case for whats so wrong about the rise
The NEKKEI is up almost 140 points in early Asia, followng the US market higher. Yet the news for real economic recovery in Asia is dismal, let's run through them. Unemployment UP .1%, Household spending UP 2% over last year, but down .1% MoM, CPI flat negative numbers to down -1.7%. The main headline inflation CPI fell the most in 30 years. That unemplyment figure is the worst in over 5 years and worse than expected. Corporate earnings based on cost cuts and government spending will not finish off the recession. Consumers have to have the desire and the ability to wade back into the marketplace before a sustained recovery will take hold. A bull trap may be in the making. If we see the same type of number surprise us in the next week, the market may tumble, falling flat on its recovery face.
EURUSD moving toward 1.4100 stuck on 21 day MA
After the GDP hits and who knows from there. Current action is around the 21 day MA at 1.4077, a hang up point for both directions.
USDJPY Singal weakness to 95.02
I'll look for a few points higher though. Maybe with a target at 95.07. I am a little torn with the idea because I have a longer term trade back to 97.88
EURJPY Candle signals a drop to 133.64I'll be looking for price to fall to 133.64 plus the spread. I am very interested by today's move in the currency market because of its lack of force against the USD. It's been the JPY that has been the big loser so far. I am not saying that the USD hasn't felt some if it, but the USDINX is only currently down 15 points from its opening. With the DJIA over 9200 and the other major indexes are all up, the USD should be feeling the pinch.
GBPJPY Closes with profit: 7 for 8 this week so far
It's been a great week to say the least, (Past performance is not indicative of future performance). My target was 1.5658. More details after the US open.
Last Updated on Friday, 31 July 2009 04:07

US stocks remain anemic
Thanks to Yahoo Finance for these charts. It has been very interesting watching the reaction of the US stock market to this morning’s gdp release. So far they have not participated in the USD rout. Oil is back above 68, which I don't understand, considering that consumer spending was down more than double what was expected. The Pound has slapped the USD, taking to pair toa high 1.6732 so far. The high from June 29th is 1.6744 and will need to bested for the rally to continue.

SNB may have little control now

All the talk in the world may not stop the CHF from taking flight today and beyond. They have done a great job of keeping the currency from getting out of control up to this point, with verbal intervention, and their entire goal may have been just what they did, hold off the currency’s strength for a later date, so that it just wasn't out of control now. With a close below the top support line the bottom line may come into focus. Trade idea short here, stop above 1.5252, targeting 1.5180.

GBPUSD Highly important

The USD Crush begins, will it last, USDJPY 79.4 points profit booked.
The USD may not be able to withstand the surge if folks start piling on USD shorts. Watch those "B" lines drawn below though. Breaks back against and through them will almost surely show that the USD crush was just a wave of last desperate pushes. I for one am willing to give this recent USD failure a wide berth. Even now the GBP has broken 1.6585 highs from the 23rd and is taking on 1.6600 with a break above that level. Today the USD falters hard. The good news is that the USDJPY short I had has filled profitably with 79.4 points in profit (past profits are not indicative of future gains). I entered the trade yesterday if you want to go see the details, I also want to short the USDCAD but can't see a reason yet.

EURFPY 185.4 Points Profit booked on Volatility

Although it was just my profit target,(past results are not indicative of future results) and is most likely going to get hit again, 135.16 was hit on volatility after the GDP release. Initially the USD caught a bid, but is now falling against the four majors and the USDCAD. It remains to be seen if this is knee jerk on the US opening, or if it holds up. The DJIA has opened higher today, but only slightly. Regardless of what you think, when you dig into the numbers, the GDP release was not good. Yes it was better than expected, but consumer spending shank more than double what it was expected too. We'll have to see if the equity bulls can pull off a gain based on this GDP release.

If the FTSE is giving any indication that the recent rally was overdone, the us markets should open lower. I'll hit more details on the release later.


USD Awaiting Unemployment Report at 12:30 GMT
The USD declined for the first time in three days against most of its major counterparts. This was initiated by a government report showing that Japanese manufacturers boosted production for a fourth consecutive month, sapping demand for safe-haven currencies.

The greenback fell strongly against the GBP after a report showed U.K. house prices rose for a third month in a row and a rally in stocks spurred investor appetite for riskier assets. The dollar has slipped considerably against the Sterling Pound by a massive 120 pips to 1.6495.

Looking ahead today, the most important event is the U.S Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT. Worse than expected result may help the dollar recover some of today's losses against its primary crosses, such as the GBP and EUR. On the other hand, if the results turn out to be better than forecasts, then the dollar may record a fairly bearish session in afternoon's trading.
Crude Oil Price Crashes after Unusually High Inventory Data
The price of Crude Oil experienced a sharp decline in prices yesterday after a U.S. inventories report highlighted a sudden surge in energy supplies. While these reports may carry mixed messages about demand, supply, and growth expectations, the message yesterday was quite clear: demand is plummeting. Many analysts were expecting a draw-back in prices after last week's surge, but the inventory report only demonstrated how unwanted this commodity has become, which only put additional weight on the downward pressure this commodity was already expecting.

Economic News
USD - Dollar Extends Profits against the Majors
The Dollar continues to strengthen against all the major currencies. During yesterday's session the greenback was traded near a two-week high versus the EUR. The Dollar also marked a significant uptrend against the Pound and Yen.

It seems that the main reason for the USD's appreciation yesterday came as a result of the positive Core Durable Goods Orders monthly report, as well as a statement by China that it will maintain a more loose monetary policy. Whilst the Durable Goods figures reported a drop of 2.5% in June, mainly as a result of the weak demand for new civilian aircraft and defense equipment, it seems that investors were more impressed by the 1.1% rise in the Core Orders during June.

The difference between the two reports is that the Core report measures the change in the total value of new purchases orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items. Orders for aircraft are known to be very volatile, and thus have the potential to distort the underlying trend. This is why investors tend to attribute more importance to the Core report. The positive figure marked the third consecutive month in which this report delivered signs of positive growth, driving investors to believe that the global recession is reaching its end.

As for today, the main publication from the U.S economy looks to be the weekly Unemployment Claims report at 12:30 GMT. Currently, while all the major indicators of the U.S economy are showing signs of improvement, it is only the job sector which continues to deliver negative figures. Analysts forecast that 578K individuals have filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. If the actual result will be similar, this could be the harshest unemployment figures in the last month. Such a result may help drive the demand for the safety of the USD and drive its recent bullishness even higher.
EUR - German CPI Marks First Annual Decline in 22 Years!

The EUR dropped yesterday against most of the major currencies. The EUR is currently traded near a two weeks low against the Dollar, as the pair fell to the 1.40 level. The EUR also saw a sharp drop against the Pound during yesterday's session.

The EUR's slide came as a result of the unexpected negative German Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This indicator measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Germany. Considering the fact the Germany currently holds the strongest and relatively healthiest economy in the Euro-Zone, the inflation indicators from this nation have a large impact on the EUR. The indicator showed a drop of 0.1% in July.

More severely, this report has marked the first annual decline in consumer prices in Germany in more than 22 years! It appears to be the drop in energy and food costs, which took place as a result of the global recession, which created the poor annual decline in German CPI. It now seems quite certain that for any negative indicators from the German economy such as this one have the potential to weaken the EUR in the near future.

Looking ahead to today, another significant report is scheduled from the German economy. The German Unemployment Change, which measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month, is expected at 07:55 GMT. Analysts have forecasted that unemployment in Germany increased by 44K in June. If the results are indeed close to this figure, the EUR might continue to depreciate against the major currencies.
JPY - Yen Slides on Poor Retail Sales Release

The Yen underwent a bearish session against most of the major currencies yesterday. The JPY dropped over 100 pips versus the Dollar, and over 200 pips against the Pound.

The Yen dropped yesterday on poor Retails Sales data. The report showed that the total value of sales at the retail level dropped by 3.0% in June, failing to reach expectations for a 2.5% drop. Furthermore, Japan's retails sales fell for a 10th month in June, making the longest losing streak since 2003. It seems that even though the Japanese economy is showing signs of recovering, mainly due to the positive export figures, the Japanese citizens are reluctant to resume last year's consumption levels, an indication that optimism may be lacking in Japan.

As for today, a batch of data is expected from the Japanese economy. Traders are advised to follow the Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index report. This report is a leading inflationary indicator for Japan, and thus tends to have a large impact on the JPY's value. If current expectations for a 1.7% drop will be similar to the real result, the Yen might continue to weaken against the major currencies in late-trading today.
Crude Oil - Will Crude Oil Drop Below $60 a Barrel?

Crude Oil prices continued to slide yesterday. Yesterday morning, a barrel of oil was valued near $66, but the current price is trading for less than $63. The main reason for the sharp cut in crude oil prices yesterday was the Crude Oil Inventories report. The report shows an unexpected surge in U.S. energy stockpiles. While analysts expected a drop of 1.1M barrels, the actual result showed that stockpiles surged by 5.1M barrels!

Most analysts had anticipated a pull-back in prices since Oil was seemingly over-bought technically and fundamentally, but the high inventories report simply put added weight to this expected downward pressure. In addition, the USD continued to strengthen yesterday. Crude Oil is valued in Dollars, and as such, tends to fall under the weight of a strong Dollar.

Looking ahead to today, traders are advised to follow the Natural Gas Storage report, scheduled at 14:30 GMT. This is more energy data that has the potential to influence oil prices by showing a continued trend of high stockpiles, indicating low demand. Traders should also consider the Dollar's movements in today's trading, as it has a large effect on commodity values.
Technical News
EUR/USD

After a steady decline in trading yesterday, the price of this pair now sits in the over-sold territory on the 4-hour chart's RSI, indicating a level of upward pressure. The fresh bullish cross on the 4-hour Slow Stochastic, however, indicates that an upward correction is imminent. Going long with tight stops may be a smart choice today.
GBP/USD

There appears to be a recent bullish cross on the 4-hour Slow Stochastic and an impending bullish cross on the 4-hour MACD, indicating that an upward movement may be on its way. This pair is currently range-trading, however, and has reached the lower border of its channel, supporting the notion that an upward move is indeed imminent. Buying on lows and selling on highs within this channel might be a wise choice.
USD/JPY

The bullish channel on this pair, seen in the 4-hour chart, may be coming to a volatile ending today as the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart are beginning to tighten drastically. The bearish cross on the 4-hour Slow Stochastic will likely help the price's impending downward movement prior to its volatile jump. Waiting for the breach then jumping on the trend may be the best strategy today.
USD/CHF

A volatile breach of the 4-hour chart's Bollinger Bands occurred at the end of yesterday's trading, which has pushed this pair's indicators into over-sold territory. The 4-hour Slow Stochastic has a fresh bearish cross and its RSI is highlighting the downward pressure from the over-sold position. Going short and riding out the correction appears to be preferable today.
The Wild Card
Crude Oil

Yesterday's volatile downward plunge has pushed many short- and mid-term indicators into showing an impending correction. However, the long-term indicators on the daily chart show that there may still be room to run for this bearish movement. The sudden pull-back in Crude Oil's price may not yet be finished and, as such, forex traders may want to set their short positions as soon as possible to capture some of the remaining bearish movement.

Dollar Advances as Equities Continue to Show Losses
The Dollar index rose to 79.576 today, up from 78.863 Tuesday as stocks plunged and Cruse Oil prices fell, boosting demand for the Dollar as a safe haven currency. The driving forces behind the market movements are equities and risk sentiment. The latter was dampened today following a report from the Commerce Department that stated orders for durable goods in the U.S fell 2.5% in June, first decline in 3 months. The result was much worse than the expected 0.6% predicted by economist. The EUR fell to an intraday low of $1.4007 against the Dollar today, following a drop in U.S. stocks that further ate away at investors' risk appetite for higher yielding currencies. The Pound was also hurt by the drop in equities, hitting a low of 1.6347 for today. Oil futures slid over $4 to trade below $63 a barrel in recent action in New York, after U.S. inventory data showed a surprisingly large increase in stockpiles. Concerns over a prolonged feeble demand in the U.S and China, the world's two biggest consumers of Oil, also put pressure on Oil prices. Looking ahead to tomorrow Unemployment will be the main economic indicator with releases of the German Unemployment Change at 7:55 GMT and the U.S Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT. The release of the British HPI at 6:00 GMT is also likely to cause market volatility.
US Core Durable Goods Rising; Oil Prices Still Falling
With the report calling for the tightening of credit standards in the Euro- Zone, traders have witnessed the EUR lose some steam in its recent bullish rally. The EUR/USD is now trading near 1.41, and the EUR/JPY has begun dropping back towards 133.00 after a short-lived jump. Prior to the opening of the US markets we received reports detailing the level of growth in durable goods sales. With positive growth in Core Durable Goods and a decline in general Durable Goods, the reports helped show that sales in the United States are indeed climbing, but the transportation industry (airlines and auto sales) are still in a slight decline. The transportation industry in decline supports the notion of declining Crude Oil prices since the demand for oil is simply not there. We still have a few significant reports being released later in the day which may create volatility for Crude Oil as well as the Pacific currencies. The Crude Oil Inventories report is scheduled to be released at 14:30 GMT today, which may continue to show a continued decline in oil reserves. Also, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will make a decision regarding its short-term interest rates. Such an announcement always brings heavy volatility to the NZD and if traders aren't at their platforms they may miss out on some excellent price volatility!
Greenback Rebounds from Earlier Lows
The U.S dollar drifted sideways against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, hovering not far from the lowest level of the year, as investors continue to assess the real economy by looking at economic data in the U.S. Nonetheless, the U.S. dollar had found modest support against the EUR and trimmed a loss against the Japanese yen after some positive news about the U.S. economy. With signs that the U.S. housing market may be stabilizing, traders will also be examining U.S. consumption and employment conditions in coming data.
Economic News
USD - Weak Consumer Confidence Boosts the U.S Dollar
The Dollar rose from the lowest level this year against most of its major currency counterparts on revived demand for the safety of the world's main reserve currency. The resurgence in risk aversion came after the Conference Board's U.S. Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 46.6 from 49.3 in June; a worse result than the expected 49, reinforcing concerns that higher unemployment will hurt consumer sentiment. Contributing further to the demand for the safety of the American currency were the declines in stock markets. The market also awaits more U.S. Treasury auctions this week and the effect on yield moves. A record $42 billion two-year Treasury auction on Tuesday had little impact on the currency market, although details of the outcome were not encouraging for the dollar. Looking ahead to today, traders should follow the release of the Core Durable Goods Orders due at 12:30 GMT. After the disappointing results of the Consumer Confidence Index and the recent weak second quarter earning results, any worse than expected result will further dampen risk appetite and likely push the Dollar further up.
EUR - EUR fails to Breach the $1.43 Level
The EUR rose above $1.43 Tuesday morning, its highest level in about 8 weeks. However, by early afternoon Tuesday it was at $1.4155, down from $1.424 late Monday. The EUR also fell 1.1% against the Yen to 134.04 from 135.48 Monday. The decline came as equities dropped and investors turned to the safety of the Japanese and American currencies. While mostly appreciating, the EUR is having difficulties pushing past important resistance levels, failing to stay above the significant $1.43 level. This is do to milder gains on the European Stock markets combined with investor's caution ahead of the release of the U.S second quarter GDP this coming Friday and the Non Farm Employment report due next Friday. Along with movements in equities, the release of the German Prelim CPI throughout the day is also expected to cause market volatility, possibly pushing the EUR back to the $1.43 level.
JPY - Yen Gains on Return of Risk Aversion

The Yen rose yesterday against most of its 16 major counterparts advancing versus the EUR for the first time in 4 days as a bigger than forecasted drop in U.S. Consumer Confidence this month discouraged investors from buying higher-yielding assets. Furthermore, as the Yen is highly correlated with movements in equities, yesterday's disappointing second quarter earnings and the consequent drop in global stock markets further assisted the Yen's rise. With no major news releases from Japan, risk sentiment will likely continue being the driving force behind the JPY's movements.
Crude Oil - Crude Prices Tumble after an 11 Day Rall
Crude oil for September delivery fell $1.15, or 1.7%, to $67.23 a barrel Tuesday; hitting an intraday low of $66.60. Crude Oil tumbled as U.S Consumer Confidence fell, boosting concerns over recovery in demand. Lower than estimated second quarter earning also put pressure on Oil Prices. With a negative Oil forecast from British Petroleum (BP) and a continuing climb in U.S Oil inventories, the sentiment turned bearish on Oil prices. Movements in equities as well as Dollar sentiment will likely be the driving force behind Oil trading today, as a strong Dollar tends to put downward pressure on Oil prices. Furthermore, traders should follow the release of the U.S Crude Oil Inventories at 14:30 GMT today as this release tends to create great volatility in Oil Prices.
Technical News
EUR/USD
It appears that the bullish trend may have run out of strength as the current price level pushed the pair into the overbought territory on the daily chart's RSI, indicating that a downward reversal may occur later today. The 4 hour chart's Slow Stochastic also appears to be showing an imminent bearish cross, which supports this notion. Going short with tight stops might be the right choice today.
GBP/USD
The sharp bearish move that took place during the past couple of days seems to have more steam in it. The RSI on the daily chart is crossed above the 50 line, suggesting that the pair may fall further. The bearish move on the daily's Slow Stochastic also supports this notion. Next target could be 1.6380.
USD/JPY
A bullish cross on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic implies that an upwards correction might take place in the nearest time frame. The 4 hour chart's RSI is floating in the oversold zone suggesting that the downward trend might be out of steam. Going long with tight stops appears to be the right strategy today.
USD/CHF
The typical range trading on the daily chart continues. Both the RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. The hourlies are also providing mixed signals with no specific direction. Good strategy might be to wait for a clearer signal before entering the market n this pair. The Wild Card
USD/SEK

After the recent drop in value, the price of this pair appears to now be floating in the over-sold territory on the RSI of both the hourly and daily charts, signaling a bullish correction may occur in the nearest future. As the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart begin to tighten, a volatile upward correction may be occurring in today's early trading hours. Forex traders can take advantage of this imminent volatile movement by setting an early long position with tight stops.

FOREX Tester is a fun piece of software that acts as a simulator of the Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX). Novice FOREX traders are sometimes too quick to jump into the thrill of the action. Using a simulator like FOREX Tester is advisable before throwing your money away and essentially setting yourself up for failure.


Sure, there are many options for live FOREX demo accounts, but practicing in real time means waiting hours, sometimes days, to test your trading ideas and strategies against the actual market. FOREX Tester has packaged their simulation into a matter of hours and minutes for a faster and much more convenient method of testing.


The FOREX Tester training software allows users to test out their trading skills without risking real money. Users are able to load history data (even MetaTrader history) to enable mock trades where they can develop and test their trading strategies against the historical data. You will be able to view and understand the pattern recognition and trading signals. You can fast forward or rewind to test and retest your understanding. There is a built-in list of many indicators to choose from or you can create your own indicators using FOREX Tester API. FOREX Tester logs your history and you can use screen snapshots to further analyze your strategies.


You can begin by visiting the download section of Forex Tester Here you are prompted to choose between the lite version and pro version of the software. The lite version is primarily for manual testing and cannot test automated strategies. A licensed registered copy is $99. The pro version includes a number of templates and gives users the ability to save and reload previous testing strategies. The pro version of the program comes with a $135 price tag but is the best bet for individuals who are serious about their trading.


You can test run demos of both the lite and pro versions but the demo has two limitations. First, you can only test for ten minutes before starting again from scratch and there is no option to save the results of your previous test. Secondly, only the “Start testing from first date in range” option is active at Connect before beginning the testing process and you can only test one month of data history on the unregistered version. Purchasing a registered copy will allow you to test your strategies uninterrupted and get the most from the simulator.


Let’s put it this way, if you master your techniques through the FOREX Tester simulator, once you take them into the real FOREX market, you can very easily earn back your investment for the registered copy of the software.


Using the program is relatively easy. You will see that there are two modes for the program – Edit Mode and Testing Mode. In edit mode you are able to edit your currency list, either by adding new pairs or editing the four existing pairs, import your historical quotes and generate ticks.


It is necessary to get historical data and generate ticks before testing. There are several sources online where you can freely download historical data. Once source is Data Bank, the history center for MetaTrader 4 from FOREX broker Alpari Ltd. You can find other sources through your search engine of choice. Once your data history is imported, you again go to the File menu, click Generate Ticks For Testing Mode where you choose your desired ticks generation method and the currency names and date range to generate ticks.


You are then able to begin testing strategies by switching to testing mode and hitting Connect. The program will start reading and processing the prepared tick data and building bars. You are then capable of simulated buying or selling or placing pending orders with the ability to pause testing, trace by bars or roll data back.


Tracking your actions is made easy with the ability to paint different styled graphics elements to the charts and fasten the control points to bars on the graph.


One of the biggest advantages of FOREX Tester, especially for someone who is new to the market is that the creator of the program is very active on the website’s message board forum, in addition to other FOREX message board communities. He is available to help you with any questions and is genuinely interested in your feedback and suggestions to improve the program. For instance, trailing stop functionality was recently added to the program, specifically due to requests from users on message boards.

ust when you thought you are on the roll of making money with foreign exchange trading, it suddenly spins 360 degrees for the worst. Yes, foreign exchange trading does enter volatile periods. It is only understandable since the market happens to be dynamic and is constantly changing. It is up to you to know the best strategies to ensure you can still generate profits even during unstable times in the capital market.

The first useful strategy is for you to determine when you should enter a trade and when to exit. There are advantages to knowing when you can enter a trade as this allows you to make money. Knowing when to exit the trade is equally important as it allows you to avoid losing the money you’ve invested.

The second strategy that you would find useful is to be knowledgeable on the chances of profiting from a trade. You can begin by calculating the ratio of your gains to losses. This strategy will help you decide how much money to invest in a certain trade.

The third strategy you should know is to be able to measure the amount of risk you are taking compared to the rewards you can possibly reap. Another great strategy, the fourth to keep track of, is to limit your losses. You can do this by altering your take-profit and stop-limit orders when necessary.

Lastly, use technical and fundamental analysis effectively. Technical analysis will help you predict the future of the market by studying the price movement, whereas fundamental analysis will help you consider the situation of the country whose currency you are trading.

Foreign exchange can be lucrative, but when it enters its volatile periods it is necessary that you have the right arsenal to help you remain standing despite the storm. You can start by following these great 5 strategies to change your Forex trading outcome for the better.

With so many countries involved in the money market, it is obvious that you are going to be dealing with a lot of currencies. But with foreign exchange, the art comes in knowing which currencies are more active and which are not.

What’s the deal, you may ask? In foreign exchange, you don’t want to be left with a currency that has little or no interest and which may get stuck with you as you will be having difficulty selling the currency. And most of all, if you have your hands on the active currencies, there is a narrower spread between bids and ask price which would make it easier for you to gain profit.

There are seven currencies that are making it big in foreign exchange trading. These are the United States Dollar, the Euro, the Japanese Yen, the British Pound, the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar.

Among the seven currencies, the United States Dollar is the most traded currency. This is followed by the Euro and the Japanese Yen. These three currencies are commonly labeled the globe’s three major economic powerhouses.

The increased activity of these currencies owes a lot to the performance of the country itself, economy-wise. The United States is known for its export powerhouse and is the leading exporter of products in the world. The Euro is a combination of a number of strong economic nations in Europe. Japan has a technological advantage all over the world. These are the very reasons that make their currency among the top three.

Traders can get caught up in thinking that shorter time frames can reduce risk. They think they can get out of bad trades sooner but they also get out of good trades sooner.

If a trader is looking at the smaller time frames like the 1- and 5- minute they will get more signals. They will be getting in and out of the market more often because the smaller move seem to be important but in the big picture they are not. If you look at the smaller time frames you may get 10 to 12 signals a day while on a 1-hour time frame you might only get 1 or 2 a day. By trading the larger time frame will find that you will not get whipsawed as much and you will not have to spend as much time in front of the computer. This will reduce your emotion and you will find that you will make better trading decisions. You will not be trying to over think the trade. You will just see a signal and take.

The following chart is 7 hours on a five-minute chart; you would have made about 180 pips if you had taken each of these signals. Over the course of the 24 hours you could have made about the same Number of pips as the following chart on the one hour but you would have to be in front of the computer for the 24 hours and this can get old fast. You get caught up in one of the health issues you should try and avoid, being overly tired. Then you start to second guess yourself and make mistakes. We can assure you that you would have missed some of the moves causing your self more frustration and emotion.



This is a 1-hour chart for 2 days; if you had taken the two trades on the first day you would have made over 400 pips.

You would also be rested and alert for more trades on other currency pairs which in turn would make you even more pips.
The carry trade has been one of the most popular forex trading strategies in the last few years, but with recent changes in the currency market and increased volatility, the carry trade now looks like a losing proposition. The question that is on most traders minds is, will the carry trade ever come back as a viable trading strategy? The answer to this question is murky at best, depending on the global economic conditions and stability in the currency markets.

How does the Carry Trade work?
To understand why the carry trade isn't working, one must first understand what the carry trade is. The carry trade is a trade where a currency trader or speculator is attempting to not only gain from the rise or decline of the currency pair, but also the interest rate differential between the two currencies.
When carry trading, the trader buys (or goes long) the currency with the higher interest yield while selling (or going short) the currency with the lower interest. The speculator is attempting to capture the interest rate differential as well as any appreciation in the currency. The carry trader is often more interested in the positive interest earned on the currency pair rather than the profits from the trade itself.

Let's take a look at a sample carry trade:

1. Trader Buys New Zealand Dollars (Earns 6.5%)

2. At the same time, Trader Sells Japanese Yen (Pays 0.30%)

3. If the currency pairs stays at the same rate for the whole year, trader makes 6.15% (Interest Rate Difference)

If this is a 100k position, the trader has earned 6.15% interest on 100,000. With 10:1 leverage, the trader put up 10k and earned $6,150 NZD.
The New Zealand/Japanese Yen currency pair has been a great example of this strategy in the recent past. Forex traders bought the pair not for economic growth in the New Zealand economy, but the carry trade opportunity. Currency traders jumped at the chance to earn the 8 percent interest rate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was offering at the time while simultaneously, paying a cost of 0.5 percent for the Japanese Yen.

This 7.5% rate on margined funds lead to huge potential gain and this decision helped money managers garner a high return on a rise in the currency as the New Zealand dollar appreciated against the Yen while also gaining from the wide difference in interest rates between the countries.



Why has the carry trade started to fail?

All good things must come to an end, and this includes the carry trade. Three major concepts have recently taken down this seemingly infallible strategy. With that said, conditions may again become favorable once the market downturn runs its course.



Interest Rates Cuts

Many global economies are in jeopardy and desperate to free markets. As a result, they have decided to begin cutting interest rates. This has caused traders and money managers alike to reconsider their already long term carry trade positions. The eight percent return they were previously getting is now a smaller five to six percent return.

Although the Japanese yen, a favorite funding currency for the carry trade has also slightly lowered their interest rate from .5% to .3% their interest rate differential is still less. This shrinking differential became too small to compensate against increasing losses as the New Zealand dollar began to weaken. This led to a mass asset reallocation so traders could cut losses and try to build funds elsewhere.
Increased Risk Aversion

As market volatility increased, which can be seen in the large increase in average daily ranges, investors became more fearful of risky assets and decided to close these positions. As short term benefits for the carry trade and many stocks decreased, traders closed out of their carry trade positions from the FX market. Carry trades work best in less volatile environments, as the pairs most suited for them are typically riskier assets. Carry traders are now keeping their distance.

Government Intervention

Government forex intervention is rare but it can occur most often as a tool when a currency either rises or declines faster than central bank expectations. It has rarely been used or mentioned as carry traders exited en masse. The absence of intervention helped to fuel a new generation of sellers as favorite carry candidates took a beating. The list included popular carry trade currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, Euro and British Pound. Had central bank policy makers hinted at some potential action. Unfortunately, this was not the case and there was nothing to curb the downfall.

Looking to the future

Volatile markets and an aversion to risk won't last forever. Forex, like the equity markets typically recover along when investor's appetite for higher returns increases. There have been similar situations that appeared in the last ten years, and carry trades will likely repeat once volatile markets have calmed. This opportunity will take some time to resurface, but it will be worth the wait.

For when conditions are ideal again, here is what to look for in a carry trade.

1. Large interest rate differentials:
If the British Pound has a 4.50% interest rate and the Japanese Yen has a 0.50% interest rate, it would likely be a good pair to look at.

2. Healthy Economy of the Higher Interest Rate Currency
This is partially why the carry trade is not currently working. Be sure to watch out for this when volatility calms.

3. Low Market Volatility

The carry trade works best when market volatility is low.
There are really a few ways to know whether to open a position. Analyzing the news is one of them. Staying updated on current events is of utmost importance when it comes to trading Forex, but no matter how long you spend analyzing the news, will you ever really know in what direction the market will go?
I think you should have an understanding of the major news and topics, but you should round out your tools by using some technical analysis.

It is crucial for example to know the direction of the trend and to be aware of the major support and resistance levels since the market will usually return to the direction of the trend. A possible trading tip would be to do all of the research you need then place an order in the direction of the trend not paying attention to the results of your studies. There is a 50/50 chance that you will be profitable. If you are not, there is a good chance that the market will come back and give you a good trade. Just do not over trade your account on this one order. Give it enough room to move. If you are right, then you should have a fairly good trade.

Just sitting by your computer waiting to hear the news can be ineffective if you wait until the market has had a chance to settle in on the impact of the announcement. At this time you should not trade based on your opinion, you will be better off if you trade with the market. Fall in line with the market and want what the market wants. Just be in tune with what the market is really doing. If you are not set on a certain way you think the market will go, then you will not be disappointed. We have all seen news that the commentators said would have an ill effect on the market and what ended up happening was that the market rallied and the currency pair became stronger.

In summary, use both fundamental as well as technical analysis when trading the news. Wait until the dust settles and let the market tell you what it is going to do and how much. There will always be another trade. If you have fun and are relaxed you will be able to make more money. Always rely on a good trading system. Then the odds will be in your favor.
The foreign exchange market is becoming a buzz word all around the world. In these troubling financial times, people are looking for a solid market that has not been affected by the crisis and the Forex market is it. There are close to 4 trillion dollars traded daily in the Forex market, something that obviously makes it attractive to many financial institutions as well as individual traders.

Just like everything else in life, the Forex market has a negative side to it as well. It is a very risky market if you do not know what you are doing. One of the aspects of getting started in this volatile world of Forex is choosing the right kind of account to meet your trading needs. There are many account types, and each one has its advantages and disadvantages. Before you trade one dollar, it is important to make an educated decision about many different things such as how much money you can afford to risk, how you want to trade and with who, and many other necessary questions, one of the most important being what kind of account to use.

Here is a short overview of the available account types in the existing Forex market, as well as each kind's advantages and disadvantages.

Mini Trading Account

This type of Forex account is intended for newer traders or individuals who are not interested in investing large amounts of money. Mini accounts allow you to trade Forex with a minimal personal investment of anywhere between $250-$500. Most brokerages offer a 400:1 leverage on mini accounts, which enables the trader to make transactions of up to $10,000, while only making a minimal risk to the trader's personal money. This is an important point to understand in Forex. You can make a lot more money than you invested, but you cannot lose more than you have.

Pros:

* Small Capital Required: Anyone who has $250 to risk can trade Forex using a mini account. The reason being the very unique advantage of the Forex market, the leverage given to traders.

* Low Risk: All Forex experts will tell you to trade with a demo account before risking large sums of money. After you have done that, it is recommended to trade with a mini account as well. It is a good way to practice and examine your trading strategy's effectiveness, at a very low risk.

* Flexibility: One of the main principles of Forex trading is to have a risk management plan and to stick to it. With mini accounts, this is very easy to do. You can trade with many mini lots as opposed to one large lot, in which you risk a lot more money if your plan is not a good one.

Cons:

In the case of mini accounts, there really is only one disadvantage. It is true that you risk less, but just like everything in life “no pain, no gain”. The potential for profit is much lower than in standard trading accounts. Mini accounts that trade $10,000 lots can only produce $1 per pip of movement, as opposed to $10 in a standard account.

Standard Trading Account

This type of Forex trading account is the most common. That is not why it is called the standard account. The name is derived from the fact that with this type of account, traders can make transactions of the standard lot, which in Forex is $100,000. Like you probably know by now, the ability to trade lots of $100,000 does not mean you need to invest that entire amount. Standard accounts generally come with leverage of 100:1. This means that you only need to invest a capital of $1,000 to trade using a standard acount.

Pros:

* Potential for Gain: Since you are risking more money here, the potential for profit is also greater. With this type of account, each pip is worth $10, therefore, with a 100 pip gain, the trader can make a $1,000 gain. That is unprecedented in the Forex market with any other type of account.

* Perks in Service: As I am sure you can understand, when traders enroll in a standard trading account, the service they receive from the broker is different than when trading with a mini account. This of course is logical and is understood both from the trader's and the broker's perspective. These perks can include smaller spreads, as well as many other possible advantages.

Cons:

* Potential for Loss: This is an obvious down side of standard trading accounts, but one that must be said. With the possibility of gaining a large profit in a short period of time exists the exact flip side of the coin. If the currency makes that same 100 pips movement, but in the other direction, you are out $1,000. For this exact reason, standard trading accounts are intended for experienced traders who can also afford to risk relatively large amounts of money.

* Large Capital Required: The minimal amount of capital required to open a standard account differs between brokers. Some require $2,000, while others require $5,000 and even $10,000, which makes this type of account a very exclusive trading account type.

Managed Trading Account

Managed trading accounts are exactly like they sound. Trading accounts in which the trader contributes the capital, but the management aspect is performed by a Forex professional and not by the trader. When opening a managed account, the trader specifies the goals for the account, and the account manager attempts to reach those goals. There are two primary types of managed accounts:

1. Pooled Funds: With this type of managed account, your money is put into a mutual fund with the capital of other investors and the profits or losses are then shared. These accounts are categorized according to risk tolerance. A trader looking to make more money in a shorter period of time, will choose a managed pool fund account with a higher risk/reward ratio, while a trader looking for a more steady income will do the opposite.

2. Individual Accounts: These are of course accounts that are managed on a more individual basis and not in a collective pool of funds.

Pros:

* Professional Assistance: No matter how long you have been trading Forex, there are people that have been doing it for longer. It is always important to listen to other people's opinions on the market, especially when they are well known experts in the field. With managed accounts, you can generally count on the fact that your money is in the hands of an experienced Forex trader that will make educated decisions on what to do with your money and when.

* Freedom: Having your account managed by someone else leaves you the ability to gain from the Forex market without having to spend the time trading. You can spend your time doing whatever it is you do and rest assured that the experts managing your money will do everything in their power to help you see gains.

Cons:

* Price: This type of account comes at a very high price. The luxury of profiting from the Forex market while spending virtually no time doing it, will set you back $2,000 for a pooled account and up to $10,000 for an individual account.

* Lack of Flexibility: It is true that if you choose to have your account managed by someone else, chances are you do not want to or know how to do it yourself. However, with this type of account, you have very little flexibility to get involved. If you do for whatever reason want to open a position you think is a smart one, you will have to count on the account manager to see that position and make the smart decision. Having your account managed leaves you very flexibility.

The Forex market is a very popular and up and coming market. Many factors contribute to that popularity, with the primary one being its potential for profit. However, it is always important to remind yourself that that very same potential presents a grave danger, that if not managed properly can devastate even the most experienced trader. The first step in managing your Forex trading is choosing the suitable type of account based on your existing capital and risk ability.